Creative Destruction

November 6, 2006

Another Prediction Set

Filed under: Election 2006 — Off Colfax @ 2:42 am

While Bob has his extraordinarily optimistic prediction on tap (Well, optimistic if you’re a Republican and/or GOP supporter. Which he is. And I’m not.), I find it time to get my own out here in black-and-white.

Hey Bob, how about a wager? Whomever is further from the actual mark in each category buys the other a beer at the next Bash. Per category. You game?

Senate makeup: GOP 51 – Dem 48 – CFL 1; GOP retains the chamber. Santorum falls by 7 points, Burns by 2. Menendez keeps Kean at bay, Allen will hold off Webb by a hair and Talent will edge out McCaskill in a recount by under 0.5%.

House makeup: Dem 226 – GOP 209; Dem gains control. The NRCC has all but conceded defeat in an even dozen races so far, and far too many of the rest under serious challenge are too close to call. Some major predictions from me are Duckworth coming 3 points short and Paccione missing out on a Georgetown address by 5.

Gubernatorial: Detailed prediction for this one is not in my forte, so I’ll just say Dem +5 and leave it at that.

(I know. I’m not quite as optimistic as Kevin Drum or Duncan Black when it comes to the House. Part of that is the influence of those dirty tricks that TPM Muckraker keeps on yammering about… Just call me Johnny Raincloud.)

16 Comments »

  1. You’re on. Who shall serve as arbiter?

    Comment by Robert — November 6, 2006 @ 3:50 am | Reply

  2. We could always ask David.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 6, 2006 @ 3:55 am | Reply

  3. Oh, and just in case you were wondering how I see things falling here in the oxygen-deprived land called Colorado, I’ve got my prediction set over here at Left Off Colfax.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 6, 2006 @ 4:06 am | Reply

  4. My predictions are here, and I don’t do point spreads.

    Comment by ohwilleke — November 6, 2006 @ 4:31 am | Reply

  5. Of course not, Andrew. Point spreads are too specific for prophesy.😉

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 6, 2006 @ 4:42 am | Reply

  6. I, zombyboy, otherwise known as “David”, would be happy to serve as arbiter. I do it for love of beer.

    Comment by zombyboy — November 6, 2006 @ 10:16 am | Reply

  7. From the numbers coming in so far, Bob, it looks like you will owe me two beers.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 8, 2006 @ 12:29 am | Reply

  8. Two or three. Screw it, let’s just get hammered.

    Comment by bobhayes — November 8, 2006 @ 1:39 am | Reply

  9. Apart from the Senate, which is still undecided, it looks like you called it…you were within one on both governatorial and house elections. You may be right on senate too, have to see how the recounts fall out. I’m quite happy at least that Santorum is out. A senate without Santorum is like a can without botulism. Now if we can just get that bit of samonella out of the White House…surely he’s done something worthy of impeachment.

    Comment by Dianne — November 8, 2006 @ 1:00 pm | Reply

  10. I’d be wary of impeachment calls. Extremely wary. Just because the Republican Revolution redefined “high crimes and misdemeanors” to include (understatement) misleading remarks about extra-marital affairs does not give us license to follow along in their footsteps.

    There’s too much other work to be done, including the rollback of particularly onerous provisions in certain legislation, to concentrate solely on the misdeeds and misgivings of the Chief Executive. (Which would probably take more than two years to fully investigate, to be perfectly honest.) A middle-class tax cut, revision of Social Security in a way that makes sense, more immigration reform, and the Holy Grail of returning to a balanced budget are more important than a spite-filled watergating of everything the President has done over six years.

    The only thing that the latter does is create gridlock in the system, just as it did during the Clinton proceedings. And we really don’t have time for that, as the 2008 presidential race starts right now.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 8, 2006 @ 6:04 pm | Reply

  11. I’d be wary of impeachment calls. Extremely wary. Just because the Republican Revolution redefined “high crimes and misdemeanors” to include (understatement) misleading remarks about extra-marital affairs does not give us license to follow along in their footsteps.

    I’ve never head it suggested that Bush has been getting blowjobs from interns, nor that he should be impeached if he did. What he should be impeached for, among other things, is taking the US into a war that has cost thousands of American lives, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives, and trillions of dollars, for no good reason.

    However, I agree that impeachment would be a losing strategy for the Dems right now. Their majority is in the wrong place.

    Comment by Daran — November 8, 2006 @ 6:15 pm | Reply

  12. What he should be impeached for, among other things, is taking the US into a war that has cost thousands of American lives, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives, and trillions of dollars, for no good reason.

    Can’t impeach a President for performing his duties as Commander-in-Chief, Daran.

    But under the GOP’s contextual modification to the “high crimes and misdemeanors” clause during the Clinton Impeachment proceedings, perjury and/or knowingly misleading the Congress of the United States, plus conspiracy to do the same, would count.

    Therein lies the similarity between the two situations. Clinton willfully lied about his extra-curricular activities. Bush, in concert with others, willfully gave Congress misleading information (which, under the exact letter of the law, constitutes perjury when done under oath) about the intelligence that formed the basis for going into Iraq.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 9, 2006 @ 12:48 am | Reply

  13. Oh, and Dianne, looks like I was off by 3 on the House. That is, up to this point. GA-12 might still be retained by the Dems and CT-2 might still be picked up, which would put me off by 5. All the remaining races look to fall to the Republicans.

    Bang on for the gubernatorials, and completely missed two Senate races, as I thought the final polls looked like outliers. Close, but not quite a bulls-eye. Still, +/-2% isn’t a bad record.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 9, 2006 @ 12:57 am | Reply

  14. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you gloating Democratic bastard.😛

    When ya wanna get drunk?

    Comment by Robert — November 9, 2006 @ 1:09 am | Reply

  15. Dunno.

    I’ve got my Happy Try-And-Yet-Fail-Miserably-To-Forget-The-Irresistible Effects-Of-Entropy-On-The-Human-Body Day coming up over Thanksgiving weekend. The Day Of All Evil itself is being taken up by Gothic/Industrial Night downstairs at The Church (coughcoughSundaycoughcoughbetherecoughcough) but I’m free the rest of the weekend.

    Or David could have mercy upon us and schedule RMBB 6.5 (Hint hint hint.), which would have the added benefit of getting Jeff Goldstein within easy bribery range.

    Either way, whenever you get up from the Springs is good with sufficient advance warning, just so I can tell my boss that she must not schedule me for a certain day.

    After all, after a drubbing like you took on Tuesday, you probably need a few drinks.

    Comment by Off Colfax — November 9, 2006 @ 5:54 am | Reply

  16. It seems clear that under the current political situation, there is a need for an immediate Emergency Meeting of the Provisional Committee, aka the RMBB. (This would, however, be 6.0.1, not 6.5.)

    David?

    Comment by Robert — November 9, 2006 @ 6:09 am | Reply


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