Creative Destruction

May 30, 2006

Predictive power

Filed under: Economics,Science,Statistical Method — Adam Gurri @ 4:52 pm

I've started to look over the Prediction Markets.

What a fascinating phenomenon!  These buggers are apparently quite accurate, and Google has had their own internal one to help keep ahead of the game.  By all accounts, the larger the quantity of people involved, the more accurate they become.

The intelligence community has had already had one failed courtship with this new approach to aggregating information.

As they have been consistently behind the curve for as long as I can remember, it's somewhat tragic but nonetheless unsurprising that they would be unwilling to even try a new idea.

At any rate, I've been captivated by my obsession of the moment.



  1. The intelligence community was fine with the idea. It was Congress that threw a hissy fit.

    Comment by Robert — May 30, 2006 @ 5:19 pm | Reply

  2. You say true, sir Robert.

    I think that each of our beloved representatives should have a mandatory appointed statistician to teach them phrases like “long term trends” and “empirical data”

    Comment by Adam Gurri — May 30, 2006 @ 5:24 pm | Reply

  3. Or we could kill two birds with one stone, and just drag them out and beat them at the same time we’e doing Gygax. No point in making two trips.

    Comment by Robert — May 30, 2006 @ 5:59 pm | Reply

  4. I’ll drive

    Comment by Adam Gurri — May 30, 2006 @ 7:14 pm | Reply

  5. This is a fascination of mine as well. Admittedly, selling the intelligence aspect was a PR challenge to say the least, but it was nonetheless disappointing to see so many lawmakers respond with variants on “You want to GAMBLE on terrorism!!!”

    Comment by bazzer — May 31, 2006 @ 10:19 am | Reply

  6. There were concerns in the intelligence community mostly regarding event definition and the incentive to influence real world events to receive payoffs.

    Comment by ohwilleke — May 31, 2006 @ 7:13 pm | Reply

  7. Wouldn’t that same concern exist now, if you were to turn it around and make it about the experts who’re paid to make good predictions?

    Don’t they have full-blown paychecks riding on that?

    Comment by Adam Gurri — May 31, 2006 @ 10:36 pm | Reply

  8. Don’t they have full-blown paychecks riding on that?

    If only.

    Tell you boys what, when I’m king, if MY intelligence services let me down the way ours have, heads are going to roll.

    And I’m not using a metaphor.

    Comment by Robert — May 31, 2006 @ 10:40 pm | Reply

  9. I was hoping you wouldn’t think of that obvious flaw in my logic.

    Comment by Adam Gurri — May 31, 2006 @ 10:42 pm | Reply

  10. Linky Linky

    Comment by Adam Gurri — June 16, 2006 @ 9:26 am | Reply

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