Creative Destruction

November 12, 2006

Cognitive Bias

Filed under: Content-lite,Philosophy — Daran @ 10:17 am

Interesting…

Of course, I don’t suffer from any of these.

About these ads

6 Comments »

  1. They are, I’m glad you posted this, I was just thinking of posting it myself.
    My favorite was:Belief Overkill, the name was hilarious, altough the theory behind it was quite good too. I suspect it will be easier to remember due to Von Restorff effect.
    Then there’s also the Just-world phenomenom, which I have sometimes ‘advertised’ on discussions about rape, especially if ‘victim-blaming’ comes into play.
    Worthy of read, the whole lot of them.

    Comment by Tuomas — November 12, 2006 @ 11:35 am | Reply

  2. I wonder if there’s a name for the opposite of the Just-world phenomenon, which is subscribed to by those who consistently overstate the role of bad luck in undesirable outcomes.

    Comment by Brandon Berg — November 12, 2006 @ 1:04 pm | Reply

  3. That that last comment was worded a bit awkwardly was purely due to bad luck, and had nothing at all to do with the fact that I didn’t proofread it before submitting.

    Comment by Brandon Berg — November 12, 2006 @ 1:07 pm | Reply

  4. Brandon Berg:

    Heh (#3).

    From the wiki definition J-W P:

    This seems solid:

    In another study, subjects were told two versions of a story about an interaction between a woman and a man. Both variations were exactly the same, except at the very end the man raped the woman in one and in the other he proposed marriage. In both conditions, subjects viewed the woman’s (identical) actions as inevitably leading to the (very different) results.

    This, however, doesn’t:

    In this way, if something good (like a job promotion) or bad (like an injury) occurs, people attribute the occurrence to the person, not to a chance turn of events. For example, some people feel that those living on the street are homeless because they are too lazy to find a job, rather than considering alternatives such as bad luck or mental illness. Likewise, if someone invests well and is rewarded by it, most people believe that the person is smart and a good investor, instead of it being chance.

    First bolded part:

    “Eenie meenie minie moe — You get the promotion! Congratulations!”

    Second part:

    This is actually quite funny.

    The invests well -part and is rewarded by it -part has already decided the chance-based variables, so it is illogical to file this under chance rather than smart and good investor (isn’t this engaging in Halo Effect?).

    Good point, though.

    Comment by Tuomas — November 12, 2006 @ 1:38 pm | Reply

  5. I wasn’t really objecting to anything in the article; I was just pointing to the fact that the opposite bias is quite common as well.

    I interpreted “invests well and is rewarded by it” to mean that his investments did well, which may or may not have been due to skill.

    Comment by Brandon Berg — November 12, 2006 @ 9:40 pm | Reply

  6. I know, but I was.

    I interpreted “invests well and is rewarded by it” to mean that his investments did well, which may or may not have been due to skill.

    That’s because you read intent instead of being a nit-picker.
    My point is that in “someone invests well and is rewarded by it” you have redundancy that can only be explained by a reference to investing skill.

    Logical corollaries:

    I invest well and am punished by it:
    I made good investments (well-informed etc.), but they failed, in other words, bad luck.

    I invest badly and am punished by it:
    I am a dunce, and my investments fail.

    I invest badly and am rewarded by it:
    Pure luck.

    Of course, obviously most good investments (investing well) require a certain degree of luck to offer a reward.

    Comment by Tuomas — November 13, 2006 @ 3:28 am | Reply


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

The Rubric Theme Blog at WordPress.com.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: